In recent months we have been witnessing a steady rise in grain prices. Corn, wheat ... all steadily rising. If the food crisis of 2007 some of the blame was due to speculation and biofuels, this time around is due to factors of production, because for months the major producers announced production cuts for the problems key times encountered in production, so speculators have little to do .
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fusky (Iván Sánchez) on Flickr
In the years 2007-2008 with the previous food crisis, several factors came together that led to a crisis of enormous depth. On the one hand coupled crop loss due to drought and floods, as he ended going to Australia and Canada as well as increasing the dedication of the production of corn for biofuels.
There was also increasing demand in Asian countries, especially China and India, unable to satisfy themselves to their new growing middle class population, and calling for better food with a greater production of meat products and indirectly an increase in prices milk powder, which led to European farmers at prices not seen for many years.
addition also coincided with increased oil and fertilizer, which meant that many acres could not be sown or planted at half capacity because the cost per hectare increased.
2010 - 2011
This time we see as the prices of cereals are steadily rising for months. In the past seven months, corn and wheat have doubled in price and sugar has risen by 150%. In December, the highest price recorded in the last 25 years. To see how it has been this rise in grain prices, we must look back to August 2010, when the major grain producers in the world announced that they would struggle to meet global demand and the fact is that production has decreased with compared to 2009 in 2 of the most popular major cereals such as maize and wheat.
In the 2009-2010 cycle maize reserve was 147 million tonnes, "for the period 2010-2011, decreased to 127 million tonnes, 20 million less."
The wheat reserves of 197 million tonnes, which had in the previous cycle, fell to 178 million tonnes in the current, ie 19 million tonnes in that cycle, a situation that is a signal for speculation leading to higher prices of grains, said researcher Chapingo.
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/740017.html
Russia
In August 2010, the fourth largest producer cereal, announced that temporarily banned exports of wheat, due to severe droughts in the summer months, with the highest temperatures in the last 130 years.
A drought in nearly 30 Russian regions (20% of arable land) and causing the export ban in anticipation of what may happen and also as a measure to keep prices at the domestic level. In 2009, Russia's production of wheat, was 90 million tons and in August it expected the final production was between 70 and 75 million tonnes. The difference of the 20 million tonnes, was what allowed Russia, being one of the largest exporter last year and prices to keep both internally and externally. Only
earlier this year announced it would lift the ban on wheat exports, domestic demand once stabilized, albeit at the cost of a 30% production.
Something similar happened to the countries of the region such as Kazakhstan or Ukraine, with great production of cereal and suffered similar situations. China
Food demand in China was one of many factors responsible for causing rising food prices in crisis 2007-2008. With an aging population, an increasing demand for more power and better quality, the Chinese authorities are in the position that it must increase the country's output of all products, although not sufficient to supply the population internal. What is more steady increase in demand in those months, China suffered the worst floods in 10 years and the government already provided that problems occur. Although China is the largest cereal producer in the world, is also one of the largest consumers, with domestic production does not cover the total demand. Finally despite floods and increased by 10% the market, the final estimated production grew 2% due to the high production areas of the northeast and Inner Mongolia (NW) that production rose by 13.4% to a total of 117.79 million tonnes.
However this increase in production did little to curb the price increase, one of the tasks of the Chinese government to curb inflation due to rising food prices.
Canada, Pakistan, Australia ...
also Canada, Pakistan and Australia, major grain producers, suffered their problems
On the one hand, Pakistan, ninth largest producer of wheat, suffered severe floods in the Punjab, the breadbasket of Pakistan, which significantly affected the production of both the 2010 and 2011, as excess water in some areas may lead to a deterioration of the earth. Something similar is what happened in Spain, wheat production fell by over 10%, by the rains of last winter.
In fact, this global decline in production in part has benefited English farmers who have seen the price of wheat and maize grew something (retrieved the price for years) and in recent years, the 'granaries of Europe' as Russia and Ukraine ranks flooded the European market with cereal and caused a fall in cereal prices.
And the U.S.? The Second World cereal producer, managed to weather the storm was coming, and not suffering from a severe flood and so droughts occurred in other countries. Thus, the production of maize and wheat-based stabilized but send less corn for biofuel production and total maize production fell by 4% and 10% in soybean.
one hand the supply and demand factor has taken the lead in all future negotiations, so the speculation as "unique" I was doing was going to tow the situation and have partly been responsible for the countries themselves of higher prices when they announced they could not meet production.
Moreover, food biofuels will increasingly less, while corn and sugar cane continue to be important in the U.S. and Brazil, respectively.
In recent years, the petrochemical companies are increasingly designed to leave more food resources as they are an expensive resource, which does not have a stable price and low energy content. For that reason more research is increased with algae or use of by-products, to avoid dependence on a few swings and a price increase ever going to be higher.
An example of what we say,
is that the European Union, deck solutions to the lack of sugar in the EU market by the fall in production
, eliminating fees for biodiesel to give them food consumption.
Hence, there is increasing research with algae and most importantly, further research with microorganisms to identify the genes involved or the identification of metabolic pathways by degradation of products such as MSW or plant remains primarily Escherichia coli
and the introduction of certain genes
(
Bacteria and biofuels
)
For example, Spain there are some interesting research in the field of fungal quite good results
microorganisms
Why? Are easy to grow, they are cheap and produce large amounts of product without affecting the extension of cultivation and human consumption.
The next few years
Forecasts International Grains Council (IGC), the increase in prices may be encouraged to increase the acreage is used for growing wheat and maize by 3.6% between 2011 and 2012, although as we have seen, increased production does not necessarily mean lower prices because they always is the meteorological factor that can derail the forecasts, especially in something so dependent on the conditions of floods and droughts as an agricultural crop.
However, climate change will increasingly make more palpable and the phenomena of drought and floods will become more frequent, requiring the improvement of crop plants to make them less vulnerable to these conditions , and either with artificial selection as with the rice and wheat or transgenic varieties better adapted to extreme conditions both as the temperature increases projected for the coming years.
The Earth's temperature increase over the next decade at least 2.4 degrees Celsius and, if kept current distribution patterns, the planet can not feed its human population, according to a study released today.
The report was released by the U.S. subsidiary of Universal Ecological Foundation of Argentina.
According to the study, 55 pages, by 2020 there will be on the planet more than 900 million human beings, for a total of 7,800 million, and "global food production will not be sufficient to meet demand."
"For more than 20 years, scientists have warned about the impact of change climate, but nothing changes apart from increased emissions that cause global warming, "said Liliana Hisas Faith, executive director of the U.S. branch of this organization.
Osvaldo Canziani, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 and adviser scientific report, said that "everyone is recorded weather events and extreme weather conditions, and increases in average surface temperatures will exacerbate the intensity of these episodes."
According to the authors, in 2020 a deficit of 14 percent in production and demand for wheat, 11 per cent for rice and 9 per cent for maize. EPA
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