In recent months we have been witnessing a steady rise in grain prices. Corn, wheat ... all steadily rising. If the food crisis of 2007 some of the blame was due to speculation and biofuels, this time virtually most of the increases are due to bad weather which affected the main grain producers in the world in key times production, in which speculation has had little to do.
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fusky (Iván Sánchez) on Flickr
Between 2007 and 2008 together different factors that caused a global food crisis of enormous depth. On the one hand coupled crop loss due to drought and floods, as he ended going to Australia and Canada as well as increasing the dedication of the production of corn and sugar cane for biofuels.
Moreover, some funds of hedge at the time (with money at a time when you could not see the crisis) also decided to speculate on the raw materials of food (mainly maize and wheat) with a relatively satisfactory outcome to their interests.
was also increased demand in Asian countries, especially China and India, unable to meet its growing new middle class population, calling for better food and a greater production of meat products and indirectly an increase in prices of milk powder that led to European farmers to prices not seen for many years. addition
also coincided with increased oil and fertilizer, which meant that many acres could not be sown or planted in the middle capacity, because the cost per hectare increased.
2010 - 2011
This time we see as the prices of cereals are steadily rising for months. In the past eight months, corn and wheat have doubled in price and sugar has risen by 150%, but in recent weeks appears to be a tendency to decrease. In December, the highest price recorded in the last 25 years of sugar.
To see how it has been this rise in grain prices, we must look back to August 2010, when two of the leading producers of cereals in the world, announced that they would issues to meet global demand and the fact is that production has declined over 2009 in 2 of the most popular major cereals such as maize and wheat.
In the 2009-2010 cycle of maize reserve was 147 million tonnes, "for the period 2010-2011, decreased to 127 million tonnes, 20 million less."
The wheat reserves of 197 million tonnes, which had in the previous cycle, fell to 178 million tonnes in the current, ie 19 million tonnes in that cycle.
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/740017.html
Russia
In August 2010, the fourth largest producer of cereals, announced that temporarily banned exports of wheat, due to severe droughts in the summer months, with the highest temperatures in the last 130 years. A drought in nearly 30 Russian regions (20% of arable land) and causing the export ban in anticipation of what may happen and also as a measure to keep prices at the domestic level.
In 2009, Russian production of wheat was 90 million tons and in August it expected the final production was between 70 and 75 million tonnes. The difference of the 20 million tonnes, was what allowed Russia to be one of the largest exporter last year and prices to keep both internally and externally. Only
earlier this year announced it would lift the ban on wheat exports, domestic demand once stabilized, albeit at the cost of 30% of total production of Russian wheat. Something similar happened to the countries of the region such as Kazakhstan or Ukraine, with great production of cereal and suffered similar situations. To look a little on the importance of these countries, cereal countries of the former republics of the USSR are considered the "granary of Europe" by the amount and quality of their materials. China
Food demand in China was one of many factors responsible for causing rising food prices in the crisis of 2007-2008. With an aging population, an increasing demand for more power and better quality, the Chinese authorities are in the position that it must increase the country's output of all products, although not sufficient to supply the population internal.
What is more steady increase in demand in those months in which Russia has announced the closure of temporary exports, China suffered the worst floods in 10 years and the government already provided that problems occur. Although China is the largest cereal producer in the world, is also one of the largest consumers, with domestic production does not cover the total demand. Finally 
despite floods and increased by 10% in the market, the final estimated production grew 2% due to the high production areas of the northeast and Inner Mongolia (NW) which recorded an increase in production from 13.4% to a total of 117.79 million tonnes, although in a lower quality. However this increase in production did little to stop price increases, one of the tasks of the Chinese government to curb inflation due to rising food prices.
The Ministry of Agriculture said the drought has worsened in some wheat producing regions in spite of the recent snowfall.
China is the world's largest producer of wheat and analysts say the shortage could affect wheat prices worldwide. BBC
recent rains and snowfall have improved the situation somewhat
, but will have to see the effects that may occur in the coming months could suffer the effects of land crop water stress by that time, they should not have it.
The rains also helped ease the pressure on water resources water resources in Shandong saving 1,600 million cubic meters of water that could have been used for irrigation without the arrival of rains, he said. The winter wheat crop accounts for 95 percent of the gross production of wheat in China, which is the world's leading producer of cereal.
The statement said that local governments in the eight regions are irrigated 117.5 million mu of planting winter wheat, which represents more than 40 percent of the total area.
Since the fall, local governments in these regions have mobilized more than 14 million people to help irrigate 190 million mu of winter wheat, 69 percent of the total.
(Xinhua) 01/03/2011
Canada, Pakistan, Australia ...
On the one hand, Pakistan, the ninth largest producer of wheat, suffered severe floods in the Punjab, the breadbasket of Pakistan, which significantly affected the production of both the 2010 and 2011, as the excess of water in some areas can lead to a deterioration of the earth.
Canada, eighth world cereal producer, announced by the time production problems, but finally seems to have stabilized as well as Australia, with a considerable deterioration of grain quality, as both countries as Russia and China, passed unexpected seasonal rainfall and drought in key moments of the production.
Something similar is what happened in Spain, wheat production fell by over 10%, by the rains of last winter.
In fact, this global decline in production, in part, has benefited English farmers who have seen the price of wheat and maize grew something (retrieved the price for years) and in recent years, the 'granaries of Europe 'as calls to Russia and Ukraine, flooding the European market with cereal and caused a fall in cereal prices.
United States?
The Second World cereal producer, managed to weather the storm was coming, and were not in a flood and drought as severe as with the other countries.
Thus, the production of maize and wheat-based stabilized but send less corn for biofuel production and total production of corn lowered by 4% and 10% in soybean, despite increase in acreage is destined for these products.
Biofuels Biofuels raw materials to food can still represent a significant part of total (corn or sugar cane sugar remained crucial in the production of biofuels in the U.S. and Brazil, respectively) but as the years go by, we are witnessing a race against time to try without them.
In recent years, the petrochemical companies are increasingly designed to leave more food resources as they are an expensive resource, which does not have a stable price (as we see) and low energy content.
So every time increases algae research or the use of plant products, not dependent on a futures market to avoid dependence on a few swings and a price increase ever going to be higher. Hence, there is increasing research with algae and most importantly, further investigation with micro-identification of genes involved or the identification of metabolic pathways by degradation of products such as MSW or plant remains mainly Escherichia coli
and the introduction of certain genes
(
Bacteria and biofuels
)
Exxon and BP, have long been working on growing algae for fuel production from them, as well as sequencing of organisms with useful in the production of fuels such as algae, microorganisms, etc. ... and that soon we will hear quite interesting.
For example in Spain there are some interesting research in the field of fungal
quite good results
microorganisms
Why? Are easy to grow, they are cheap and produce large amounts of product without affecting the extension of cultivation and human consumption.The decision was taken by the 27 experts at a meeting this Thursday and will also temporarily lift, to 500,000 tons, the sanction of 500 euros per tonne which hangs over the production is "out of quota" allowed margins for producers. Generally, surplus production is removed from the market and stored or punishes the product.An example of what we say about the volatility of the use of food resources, is that a few months ago, the
European Union was considering solutions to the lack of sugar in the EU market by the fall in production
the eliminate quotas for biodiesel to give them the food consumption.In the last week, after production reached the end and proceed to stored sugar,
EU has authorized the sale of sugar produced outside the quota to lower prices and sugar import tariff-free .
Problems sugar supply in the European market and high prices in the international channels have been to Brussels to announce also that the March 1 open an import quota of 300,000 tonnes of crude or refined sugar free tariff.
Europa Press
speculators this time has had little to do with the rise in grain prices.
one hand the supply and demand factor has taken the lead in all future negotiations, so the speculation "Unique" they did was go to the trailer of the situation and partly the countries themselves have been responsible for rising prices when they announced they could not meet production.
And in the case of raw materials, most processors need to buy the production months in advance in order to ensure raw material to work, while costs should watch, etc ...
Something similar to what food is what is expected to cotton, which has already been uploaded a few months of the fall in production in producer countries and increased demand in the main consumers. We return again to the offer and demand.
The high demand for cotton in China's factories, shortages in producing countries such as India and Pakistan and weather impact on crops in Australia and Russia have quadrupled the price of the raw material for textile industry just two years. Gradually increase has reached all the links in the chain leading manufacturer of fabric
have risen up to 30% prices vendors that will affect the increase in retail price.
Asensio says that in the case of China's manufacturers have raised prices up to 40% after
the cotton futures have jumped by 14% so far this year and
more than 75% in 2010, according to Bloomberg data
. In February even more pronounced upward climb and marked a new high,
breaking the barrier of $ 2 per pound
first time in history. At present, due May contracts traded on the commodities market
New York to $ 2.06 a pound, four times the price at which they were in the same period in 2009, when it traded at 57 cents.
Cotizalia
Attempting to unmount conspiranciones
One of the arguments wielded by Conspiranoids to defend the argument that speculators are to blame, is that since they are part of investment funds, the prices of cereals have increased. The truth is that big claims, it requires great truths and as always, great claims are not just met.
If you look at the chart below the FAO index of food prices , we look that between 2008 and 2009, prices were an important down due to good harvests and oil prices and fertilizer was reduced in those times. All this contributed to lower prices in a time when speculators were already.
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I know I will say is that from the 90, prices have been low and it's true, but in the 90 not envisioned the emergence of the BRIC countries and increased consumption in these countries or because they have become major manufacturers as happens to the "big factory china" or because the average population is growing at high rates as happens to China, India and Brazil, where in no time have gone from a widely poor start to observe a middle-class population that increasingly demand better products and better quality.
All this, not to mention the increase in world population
, the rising price of oil and fertlizantes and despite growing areas have increased, the reality is that adverse weather conditions have also increased.
The next few years
Forecasts International Grains Council (IGC), the increase in prices may be encouraged to increase the acreage is used for growing wheat and maize by 3.6% between 2011 and 2012, although as we have seen, increased production does not necessarily mean lower prices because there is always the weather factor that can derail the forecasts, especially in something so dependent on the conditions of floods and droughts as an agricultural crop.
FAO estimates, based on the results of this winter is to be a good harvest in late 2011, but it all depends on what happens during spring and summer, two key stations were those that caused now the price hike.
However, climate change will increasingly make more palpable and the phenomena of drought and floods will become more frequent which will force the plant breeding of crops to make them less vulnerable to these conditions, as well as with artificial selection as with the rice and wheat or transgenic varieties better adapted to extreme conditions so as to increase the temperature expected in the coming years.
The Earth's temperature increase over the next decade at least 2.4 degrees Celsius and, if kept current distribution patterns, the planet can not feed its human population, according to a study released today. The report was released by the U.S. subsidiary of Universal Ecological Foundation of Argentina. According to the study, 55 pages, by 2020 there will be on the planet more than 900 million human beings, for a total of 7,800 million, and "global food production will not be sufficient to meet demand." "For more than 20 years, scientists have warned about the impact of climate change, but nothing changes apart from increased emissions that cause global warming," said Liliana Hisas Faith, executive director of the U.S. subsidiary of the organization.
Osvaldo Canziani, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 and scientific advisor to the report, said that "everyone is recorded weather events and extreme weather conditions, and increases in average surface temperatures will exacerbate the intensity of these episodes. " According to the authors, in 2020 a deficit of 14 percent in production and demand for wheat, from 11 percent for rice and 9 per cent for maize. EPA As we have seen, there is always speculation is the culprit. simply due to reduced supply and increased demand
OK, how can Affect speculation this picture? The answer is, it has to work-through Accumulation of Inventories - physical inventory. If futures prices induce high INCREASED storage, this you reduce the quantity available to Consumers, and it CAN raise the price. And you can, in fact-, Argue That something like this has-been happening for cotton and copper, Where There Are Apparently large and growing inventory.
But for food, it's just Not happening: Are low and falling stocks.
Paul Krugman - Signatures of Speculation
NOTE
This article was originally published under the name of 
Why rising grain prices?
although the current has changed with respect as above, to update the latest on the production and the FAO reports. 
Why rising grain prices?
- Signatures of Speculation
- Soaring Food Prices
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The CIC cut its production forecasts for corn
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The solution to food prices
-
Honduras: High international grain prices depressed local market
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warn low grain reserves
- The price of corn compensates for losses
- DROUGHT IN RUSSIAN double-edged sword
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THE 'SHOCK' OF FOOD PRICES could be built - Severe flooding in China
decrease production
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China shows the way of raw materials
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cereal production in China increased by 2.9% in 2010
-
cereal prices continue to escalate their
- Six key questions: Why raise the price of food?
-
China intensifies efforts to combat drought in wheat-producing regions
- warn low grain reserves
- New food crisis?
- Bajan
grain inventories in the U.S.
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world wheat production would increase by 3.6% between 2011 and 2012
- http://www.google.com/hostednews/epa/article / ALeqM5j-_5qT5TuX7rWgytoYTddOoZNRIQ? docid = 1445497
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Why raise the price of cereal?
- China: Drought threatens wheat crops
- Flooding in China and drought in Russia threaten global food supply and prices shot
- Russia suspends the export of grain until the end of the year by drought
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wheat production in Spain will fall In 2010, a 16%
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warn other markets boom in Russia the price of wheat shoots
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Wheat futures soar in U.S.. U.S.
- global food crisis (2007-2008)
- cereal production in Russia will fall to 70-75 million tonnes by Agriculture
-
analyze the impact of biofuels on food prices
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